See supplier dependencies, compare alternatives and test costs.
For manufacturing, procurement and strategy teams examining a component category, supplier network or sourcing decision.
Analyst-reviewed research, a sourced decision brief and an editable workbook. Scope, fee and delivery schedule agreed before work starts.
Three things you take away
- 01A map of dependencies and evidence gaps
- 02A screened comparison of potential alternatives
- 03A component-cost model your team can interrogate
Supply-Chain & Should-Cost Scope
Scope a value-chain map or should-cost audit
Select your research focus below and tell us about the suppliers or component category you need to understand.
Loading inquiry form…
Scoped from component specifications, HS codes, or public category descriptions. Mutual NDA available for BOM or vendor lists.
Prefer direct email or a mutual NDA first? Email hello@15rock.com
See the work
From a business question to a decision.
Explore this ungated example. It shows the structure of the analysis and the limits of what it can establish.
Illustrative · fictional suppliers and figures
Do two direct suppliers really provide two independent supply routes?
The question. An equipment manufacturer uses two component suppliers and wants to understand whether an upstream dependency remains.
The analysis. Trace the direct suppliers to a possible shared material source, compare alternative routes and separate component-cost assumptions from supplier quotations.
01 / Dependency map
Two direct suppliers can share one upstream dependency. Confirm the relationship before relying on the map.
| Cost element | Model |
|---|---|
| Materials | 40 |
| Processing | 25 |
| Quality | 10 |
| Overhead | 15 |
| Modeled total | 90 |
| Supplier quote | 110 |
| Potential route | What the example suggests | Still to validate |
|---|---|---|
| Current A / B | Shared material dependency | Source identity and continuity |
| Alternative D | Possible separate material route | Specification, capacity and provenance |
| New material route | Potential dependency reduction | Testing, economics and buyer approval |
- What this example finds
- In this example, two suppliers depend on the same upstream elastomer source. A CA$90 modeled component cost also leaves a CA$20 difference to a CA$110 quote that needs explanation.
- The decision it supports
- Confirm the common dependency, investigate a separate material route and ask for quote assumptions. Do not treat a screened supplier as qualified or the quote difference as savings.
Read assumptions, calculations and evidence gaps
- The supplier relationships and screening statuses shown here are fictional. In real work, each link carries its evidence, date and validation status.
- CA$40 materials + CA$25 processing + CA$10 quality + CA$15 overhead = CA$90 modeled component cost.
- CA$110 quote − CA$90 model = CA$20 to investigate. Profit, freight, tooling, volume, yield, terms and qualification may explain the difference.
- Public records may leave sub-tier links incomplete. Supplier confirmation, site checks and technical validation are separate steps agreed with the buyer.
- Final technical and commercial qualification and supplier approvals remain with your buying team.
Your research package
What you receive, and how your team can use it.
Map relevant production stages and examine the assumptions behind component costs, supplier dependencies and potential alternatives.
- Supplier dependency map
- A view of relevant production stages, direct and sub-tier relationships, geographic concentration and potential chokepoints, with unknown links marked.
- Should-cost breakdown
- An editable model of material, process, labour, energy, yield and overhead assumptions, calibrated to the component and available evidence.
- Alternative screening matrix
- Potential suppliers or routes compared on relevant capability, location, capacity, certification evidence and outstanding validation.
- Sourcing decision brief
- Prioritized questions, alternative routes and a validation plan with source references and explicit research limitations.
Practical uses
- Investigate concentration behind direct suppliers
- Prepare a targeted sourcing discussion
- Challenge the assumptions behind a quote
Explore another illustrative workbook extract and delivery details
| Value-chain tier | Should-cost share% of unit cost | Vendor quote vs. modelVariance | Sub-tier supply depth | Audit finding & action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Final assembly & test | 24% | +19% above model | 4 primes screened | Validate assembly margin and pass-through assumptions |
| Tier 2 · Precision CNC machining | 31% | +4% above model | Deep · 9 regional shops | 3 dual-use shops hold required certifications |
| Tier 3 · Specialty alloy forging | 29% | +14% surcharge | Chokepoint · 2 domestic forges | Both Tier-1 bidders source from the same forge |
| Tier 4 · Nickel-chrome melt & bar | 16% | -6% index lag | Global mill index | Mill index fell 11%; vendor surcharge not updated |
| Fictional assembly and figures; illustrates how multi-tier mapping exposes shared sub-tier bottlenecks and outdated raw-material surcharges. | ||||
- Deliverables
- A value-chain map to the agreed depth, component should-cost breakdown, sub-tier chokepoint assessment and a shortlist screened against agreed capability and certification criteria. Tier 1–4 coverage depends on available evidence; unknown links remain explicit.
- Spreadsheet model
- Unlocked Excel workbook with parametric BOM cost drivers (raw material, energy, labour, yield, overhead), supplier capability matrix and dated lead-time observations. Ongoing monitoring is scoped separately.
- Evidence base
- Trade and customs shipment logs, certification registries (AS9100, NADCAP, API, ISO), environmental and facility permits, commodity indices, and technical filings.
Published engagement evidence
Related delivered research: sourcing and industrial feasibility.
This published engagement examined component sourcing, tariff exposure and location options for a potential domestic industry.
Testing a domestic uncrewed-systems industry
- The challenge
- A team needed to know whether uncrewed-systems manufacturing could work domestically, and where.
- What we delivered
- Mapped component sourcing, tariff exposure and site options, and wrote the investment case.
- What happened next
- Gave the team a sourced feasibility view to take into a client pursuit.
It demonstrates sourcing and feasibility research. It does not establish achieved procurement savings, supplier qualification or a completed investment.
- research deliveries
- 300+
- sectors covered worldwide
- 20+
Coverage across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific
Used by a global advisory firm, a Canadian pension investor, corporate strategy teams, and mid-market operators across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.
01 · Scoped Value-Chain Mapping
Investigate sub-tier dependencies to the depth supported by evidence
02 · Component Should-Cost Models
Separate raw material and machining cost from vendor markup
03 · Sub-Tier Supplier Discovery
Screen alternatives against agreed capability and certification criteria
04 · Lead-Time & Chokepoint Assessment
A dated view of potential bottlenecks; refresh frequency agreed in scope
Start with the question
Bring the decision. We will help define the scope.
What to bring
The component or product family, relevant geography, your sourcing question and when the decision is needed.
Technical drawings, bills of materials, quotations and a complete supplier list are optional initially. Share sensitive details only after scope and confidentiality are agreed.
How the engagement works
0115Rock + Your team
Define the component family, capital equipment category, or industrial supply corridor and agree the research screening criteria.
02AI research agents
Investigate upstream supplier links across customs logs, technical certifications, facility permits and procurement disclosures to the agreed depth; mark unconfirmed or unavailable links.
0315Rock analysts
Build the parametric should-cost stack, check documented capability and certifications, flag capacity questions, and identify shared bottlenecks.
04Your procurement team
Use the cost model and screened shortlist to confirm supplier capacity, complete technical and commercial qualification, and make final approvals.
Supply-Chain & Should-Cost Scope
Scope a value-chain map or should-cost audit
Select your research focus below and tell us about the suppliers or component category you need to understand.
Loading inquiry form…
Scoped from component specifications, HS codes, or public category descriptions. Mutual NDA available for BOM or vendor lists.
Prefer direct email or a mutual NDA first? Email hello@15rock.com
How to start
One question, a fixed fee, a first read in days.
- Your question
- One live question, with the decision it serves.
- What comes back
- A reviewed answer with a point of view (a ranked shortlist, a diagnostic or a plan), with every source and anything unverified flagged.
- The fee
- The fee is fixed and agreed before work starts.
- The timing
- A first read in days, not weeks, then the reviewed brief on the date we agree.
We can provide regular research updates after the first project.
Frequently asked questions
Do we need to share our confidential vendor contracts or blueprints to run a should-cost or supply-chain scan?
No. We can build an initial multi-tier value-chain map and parametric should-cost benchmark from the component category, technical standard, or public specifications alone. If you wish to compare the model against specific vendor quotes, we can do so under a mutual NDA or leave the quote cells editable in your Excel workbook.
How do you identify Tier-2 and Tier-3 suppliers when Tier-1 vendors treat them as proprietary?
We triangulate sub-tier relationships using bill-of-lading and customs records, quality certification registries (such as AS9100, NADCAP, API, and ISO), environmental and machining permits, trade association disclosures and regional industrial capability scans. These sources can leave links unconfirmed or unavailable. We agree the depth in scope, label the evidence for each link and identify what needs supplier confirmation.
Can this support Canadian industrial participation (ITB), defence offset, or domestic sourcing mandates?
Yes. We have extensive experience mapping domestic and allied manufacturing readiness, identifying civilian manufacturers with dual-use certifications, and screening regional suppliers for defence, aerospace, energy, and critical-infrastructure programs.
How many categories or components are covered in a first engagement?
A typical first project focuses on one critical component family, equipment package, or regional supply-chain corridor. Your team receives a cost model, screened supplier shortlist and open questions for supplier confirmation and final qualification.
Other TrendCap research programs
Commercial Due Diligence · Market Sizing · Target Screening
Know which market and growth assumptions you can rely on.
Explore this research
Working Capital · DIO / DSO / DPO · Peer Margin Benchmarking
Find where to investigate cash-cycle and margin gaps.
Explore this research
Defence Opportunity Assessment
Prioritize where your capabilities could fit in defence.
Explore this researchDiscuss your project
Need sub-tier visibility or a should-cost audit before your next negotiation?
Send a supply-chain inquiry or email us your component category to discuss supplier mapping and cost analysis.