Outcome Program · Asset Economics & Portfolio Coverage
Translate input costs, physical hazards and borrower disclosures into cash flow.
Connect facility engineering parameters, geocoded physical hazards, municipal reserve schedules and borrower operational logs directly to multi-year DCF models, loan bankability rubrics and quarterly monitoring reads.
The commercial challenge
Generic ratings and static annual reviews miss asset-level cash-flow exposure.
Investment, credit and municipal committees cannot underwrite capital expenditure or loan spread compression from high-level scores. They need facility-by-facility marginal abatement cost curves, trace-to-mill supply evidence, statutory reserve ratios and dated quarterly drift alerts.
- Carbon tax escalations and abatement capex unmodelled against facility steam-to-oil ratios or generation heat rates.
- Operating solar, agricultural and industrial borrowers failing lower-spread qualification floors solely because project-company logs sit undisclosed.
- Quarterly working-capital drift, covenant pressure and municipal asset deficits discovered only after annual audits close.
What your team receives
Four decision-ready deliverables in one program.
We convert facility-level engineering and operating disclosures into multi-year EBITDA and cash-flow bridges, rank facility capex by return, qualify mid-market industrial borrowers for specialized credit mandates, and verify supply traceability for loan spread compression.
- 01
Facility engineering-economic MACC & DCF model
Ten-year asset cash-flow models comparing heat recovery, electrification, fuel switching and carbon capture under escalating carbon price schedules.
- 02
Multi-asset physical hazard & reserve ledger
Geocoded wildfire, flood, heat and water-stress exposure across industrial sites, or statutory municipal asset-replacement reserve benchmarks.
- 03
Four-point borrower bankability & traceability audit
Borrower-level circularity and credit-readiness scoring separating operational performance from disclosure gaps to unlock loan spread compression.
- 04
Quarterly portfolio monitoring read
Dated change reports tracking receivables ageing, inventory velocity, segment restatements and regulatory shifts across your book.
Illustrative output
How the executive brief and reconciled databook are structured.
Every cell in the accompanying spreadsheet model is formula-driven and tagged either empirically sourced (with document and page citation) or model-inferred (with stated benchmark assumptions).
| Asset or portfolio cohort | Primary risk or gap | Sequenced lever | Modeled effect | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thermal & utility generation fleet (47 sites) | 99% Scope 1 | Heat recovery first | +340 bps IRR | high |
| Industrial borrower · scrap yield vs. net profit | 3.0× profit | 3% scrap recovery | -35 bps spread | high |
| Operating solar & plantation credit book | 1.1 / 4.0 score | Meter & mill logs | 2.5 / 4.0 floor | high |
| Municipal linear & fleet asset plan | 47% breakdown | Proactive resurfacing | 4× capex saved | medium |
Capabilities & starting scopes
Start with one deliverable or run the full outcome loop.
Each outcome program draws on specific steps of the research loop and can be commissioned as a focused starting deliverable or a recurring program.
Diagnose
Where is the value, or the risk?
Quantify trapped working capital, SKU and supplier markups, SG&A bloat and asset-level cost exposure.
You getDiagnostic and peer benchmark
Plan
What should we do, and what is it worth?
Build quantified EBITDA, cash-release, channel-mix and capex-phasing roadmaps.
You getValue creation plan
Monitor
What changed since the last review?
Re-index supplier should-costs, track peer watchlists and flag portfolio covenant shifts.
You getQuarterly monitoring read
Starting research deliverables
Risk against your framework
Stress-test facility EBITDA and capex returns, qualify mid-market borrowers, and verify traceability for lower loan spreads.
Company diagnostic
Stress-test seller growth claims, customer concentration, backlog quality and unit economics before committing exclusivity or advisory fees.
How to start
One question, a fixed fee, a first read in days.
- Your question
- One live question, with the decision it serves.
- What comes back
- A reviewed answer with a point of view (a ranked shortlist, a diagnostic or a plan), with every source and anything unverified flagged.
- The fee
- The fee is fixed and agreed before work starts.
- The timing
- A first read in days, not weeks, then the reviewed brief on the date we agree.
We can provide regular research updates after the first project.
Industries & buyer teams
Target sectors and teams that commission this outcome.
Choose your industry to see sector-specific research questions and sample workbooks, or select your team to see how we scope the first engagement.
Industries served
- Energy & utilities
Rank facility capex by return, benchmark asset operating cost, and release cash trapped in spare parts and project working capital.
- Financial services
Originate qualified mid-market borrowers, check bankability for better loan pricing, and benchmark operating cost across banking, insurance and credit.
- Public sector
Benchmark municipal and agency service levels, reserve adequacy and capital plans against peers, and map regional supplier capability for industrial and defence programs.
- Industrials & manufacturing
Audit component should-costs with zero spec changes, release cash trapped in branch inventory and unbilled work, and capture higher-margin aftermarket repair revenue.
Anonymized proof
What our analysts have uncovered across delivered engagements.
Portfolio-wide
Source-linked financial, operational and risk screening across an institutional investor's portfolio — issuer by issuer.
Borrower-level
Outside-in borrower diagnostics, unit-cost sensitivity and bankability checks across a direct lender's loan book — built without internal borrower data.
Pilot → annual
An institutional investor expanded from a pilot to an annual engagement.
From the 15Rock Review
Field notes & whitepapers on asset economics & portfolio coverage.
Analyst-checked teardowns, benchmarks, and decision frameworks drawn from delivered engagements.
The Regional Defence Concierge: Why Cluster Pitchbooks Need Machine-Level Proof, Not Logo Slides
Even a 4.43x advanced-manufacturing cluster suffers a 58% defence pipeline gap when its directory mixes academic labs with commercial plants and lacks machine-level proof.
Why General-Purpose AI Fails on Defence Supply Chains: The 20% Coverage Trap
Off-the-shelf AI assistants capture less than 20% of private sub-tier defence supply chains—and half of that 20% is wrong. Deterministic engineering graphs bridge the gap.
The 100% Offset Bottleneck: Breaking Tier-1 Saturation in Multi-Billion-Dollar Defence Tenders
When sovereign defence tenders mandate 100% domestic offsets, legacy Tier-1 primes saturate fast. Winning Value Proposition scores require Stage-4 sustainment and Tier-2…
Start with one question
Bring us one framework and the issuers, facilities or municipalities to assess.
Tell us what you’re investigating and when you need an answer. We’ll discuss the scope, inputs and research that would help.