Know which market and growth assumptions you can rely on.
For corporate development, strategy and investment teams evaluating an acquisition, a new market or an expansion.
Analyst-reviewed research, a sourced decision brief and an editable workbook. Scope, fee and delivery schedule agreed before work starts.
Three things you take away
- 01A market model you can challenge
- 02A comparison of competitors and routes to market
- 03A decision brief with open questions ranked
Commercial Diligence & Market Study Scope
Scope a commercial diligence or market study
Select your primary deliverable below and tell us about the market or business you are evaluating.
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Confidential target and sector handling. We can scope from a redacted thesis or sector description before NDA execution.
Prefer direct email or a mutual NDA first? Email hello@15rock.com
See the work
From a business question to a decision.
Explore this ungated example. It shows the structure of the analysis and the limits of what it can establish.
Illustrative · fictional figures and companies
Does the acquisition target’s market claim hold up?
The question. A deal team is evaluating a fictional industrial-services target. Does the seller’s US$6.20B market claim match the geography and end markets the team is underwriting?
The analysis. Reconcile the seller’s market definition with the agreed scope, rebuild the segment total and distinguish estimates from figures supported by evidence. The expanded example also shows a separate market-entry scenario.
01 / Seller claim reconciled to agreed scope
- Seller’s market claim
- US$6.20B
Before scope reconciliation
- Outside agreed scope
- US$1.48B
Geography and end-market exclusions
- Modeled market
- US$4.72B
Four segments; US$1.17B remains estimated
The seller claim is 31.4% above the scoped model. This tests the market definition; it does not establish the target’s revenue, share or valuation.
| Claim or assumption | Illustrative finding | Next check |
|---|---|---|
| Market size | US$1.48B sits outside the agreed scope | Confirm geography and end-market boundaries |
| Segment demand | US$1.17B of the US$4.72B total is estimated | Validate assumptions with relevant evidence |
| Target growth and share | A market total alone does not support the seller’s growth case | Test customer access, competition and share assumptions |
Explore the separate market-entry example
A separate fictional operator is considering expansion. This example uses Canadian dollars and different assumptions from the acquisition model above.
Market-entry model
- Total marketCA$80M
4,000 accounts × CA$20k annual spend
- Serviceable segmentCA$20M
1,000 accounts × CA$20k annual spend
- Customer scenarioCA$1M
50 accounts × CA$20k annual spend
The CA$1M case requires winning 5% of serviceable accounts. It is not a forecast.
| Illustrative route | Customer proposition | Question to test |
|---|---|---|
| Specialist A | Fast local service | Can the entrant match response coverage? |
| Distributor B | Established account access | What margin and access would a partner require? |
| New entrant | Focused technical offer | Which customers would switch, and why? |
- What this example finds
- The four fictional segments total US$4.72B, including US$1.17B of estimates. The seller’s US$6.20B claim includes US$1.48B outside the agreed scope and is 31.4% above the modeled total.
- The decision it supports
- Use the scoped US$4.72B total as a working basis, validate the estimated segments and test the target’s share and growth assumptions before relying on the seller’s headline market size.
Read assumptions, calculations and evidence gaps
- Acquisition example: all amounts are annual US dollars. US$1.45B + US$2.10B + US$0.68B + US$0.49B = US$4.72B; the last two segments are estimates totaling US$1.17B.
- US$6.20B − US$4.72B = US$1.48B outside the agreed geography and end markets. (US$6.20B / US$4.72B − 1) × 100 = 31.4%, rounded. OEM installations remain in scope.
- These are fictional figures and research judgments, not evidence about a real target. Estimated demand, competitive share and growth claims still require validation.
- Separate market-entry example, in Canadian dollars: 4,000 potential accounts × CA$20,000 annual spend = CA$80M total market.
- 1,000 serviceable accounts × CA$20,000 = CA$20M serviceable market; geography and service fit define the filter.
- 50 customers × CA$20,000 = CA$1M annual revenue scenario, or 5% of the serviceable accounts.
- The example assumes equal spend and no churn. Real work tests segment differences, adoption, pricing, competition and source dates.
- Customer interviews, channel access and acquisition-specific financial or legal diligence are included only if agreed in scope.
Your research package
What you receive, and how your team can use it.
Whether you are screening a fragmented vertical for roll-up targets or pressure-testing a live acquisition target’s growth claims, you receive a complete, source-linked package.
- Market model
- An editable bottom-up model of segments, demand drivers, market size and reachable scenarios, with assumptions and sensitivities visible.
- Competitor comparison
- A structured comparison of offers, positioning, customers, routes to market and evidence gaps; target screening when relevant.
- Decision brief
- An analyst-reviewed readout of supported assumptions, contradictions, priority questions and the next investigations for your decision.
- Evidence ledger and workbook
- Dated source references, calculation workings, confidence notes and unresolved questions your team can revisit.
Practical uses
- Challenge a target's growth thesis
- Choose which segments to investigate
- Prepare an investment or expansion discussion
Explore another illustrative workbook extract and delivery details
| Sub-sector segment | Addressable spendUSD, annual | 5-yr CAGREstimates marked | Competitive density | CIM claim vs. evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulated industrial aftermarket | $1.45B | 7.8% | Fragmented · top 4 hold 28% | Growth confirmed; share overstated |
| OEM line-fit installations | $2.10B | 3.2% | Consolidated · 3 tier-1 primes | Cyclical backlog risk · flagged |
| Field retrofit & compliance services | $680Mest. | 11.4%est. | Regional specialists · M&A cluster | Demand and margin assumptions need validation |
| Adjacent export territories | $490Mest. | 5.1%est. | Local certification barrier | 24-month licensing lag · flagged |
| Fictional figures. The four segments total $4.72B, including $1.17B of estimates. The $6.20B seller claim also includes $1.48B outside the agreed geography and end markets; OEM installations remain in scope. The claim is 31.4% above the modelled total. | ||||
- Deliverables
- Commercial due diligence brief (15–25 pages), bottom-up TAM/SAM/SOM model, competitor benchmark matrix, and sourced evidence ledger.
- Spreadsheet model
- Unlocked workbook with segment growth drivers, market-share estimates, target scoring weights, and valuation/margin bridge.
- Evidence base
- Public and private competitor filings, regulatory registries, import/export and procurement records, trade publications, and pricing disclosures.
Published engagement evidence
Related delivered research: from a broad market to a target shortlist.
This published target-screening engagement demonstrates structured prioritization. It is related research, not evidence that an acquisition completed or achieved a return.
140 → 12
An advisory firm
- The question
- Which of roughly 140 organizations in one market should our partners pursue first?
- Scope
- Every organization in the market, scored against the practice’s own service lines.
- What we delivered
- A scan of the market, a ranked shortlist of about 12 priority targets, and an opportunity matrix showing where the value sits at each.
- What happened next
- Partners used it to decide which organizations to approach first.
The delivered result was a shortlist and opportunity matrix that supported decisions about whom to approach.
- research deliveries
- 300+
- sectors covered worldwide
- 20+
Coverage across North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific
Used by a global advisory firm, a Canadian pension investor, corporate strategy teams, and mid-market operators across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific.
01 · Bottom-Up Market Sizing
Defensible TAM, SAM, and SOM built from primary filings
02 · CIM Pressure-Testing
Separate seller growth narratives from verified reality
03 · Target Shortlisting
Score the landscape down to a ranked acquisition shortlist
04 · Committee-Ready Output
Sourced executive brief plus unlocked Excel scoring model
Start with the question
Bring the decision. We will help define the scope.
What to bring
Your company, the market or target you are considering, the decision to make and an approximate decision date.
A target list, internal business plan, financial records or interview access can follow after scope and confidentiality are agreed.
How the engagement works
0115Rock + Your team
Agree the thesis questions, target universe, geographic boundaries, and commercial diligence criteria in a 15-minute scoping call.
02AI research agents
Map the value chain, extract segment revenue and volume data across filings, registries, and trade sources, and assemble the initial evidence ledger.
0315Rock analysts
Reconcile market definitions, test CIM or management claims against competitor reality, score targets, and flag every unverified assumption.
04Your deal team
Receive the sourced commercial brief and editable Excel model to take into IC, management Q&A, or target outreach.
Commercial Diligence & Market Study Scope
Scope a commercial diligence or market study
Select your primary deliverable below and tell us about the market or business you are evaluating.
Loading inquiry form…
Confidential target and sector handling. We can scope from a redacted thesis or sector description before NDA execution.
Prefer direct email or a mutual NDA first? Email hello@15rock.com
How to start
One question, a fixed fee, a first read in days.
- Your question
- One live question, with the decision it serves.
- What comes back
- A reviewed answer with a point of view (a ranked shortlist, a diagnostic or a plan), with every source and anything unverified flagged.
- The fee
- The fee is fixed and agreed before work starts.
- The timing
- A first read in days, not weeks, then the reviewed brief on the date we agree.
We can provide regular research updates after the first project.
Frequently asked questions
Can we use this for pre-LOI target screening or CIM validation before committing full diligence budget?
Yes. Deal and corporate development teams use a scoped 15Rock commercial study to pressure-test a CIM’s market growth, competitive share, and margin claims before deciding whether to submit an LOI or commission heavy third-party workstreams.
How do you size niche B2B or industrial markets where standard industry reports do not exist?
We build bottom-up market models by combining public and international subsidiary filings, customer installed-base counts, regulatory and environmental permits, import/export shipment records, and public procurement awards — documenting the exact calculation and confidence band for every driver.
Do you work alongside our existing M&A advisers or directly with our internal deal team?
Both. We work directly for corporate development teams, family offices, and private equity funds, and we also serve as the research and target-screening engine behind advisory and transaction practices.
What do we need to provide to scope a commercial study?
Share the sector or target profile, the commercial questions you want answered, and your decision date. We agree the sources, deliverables, and delivery schedule before work begins.
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Evaluating a target, CIM, or new market?
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