Outcome Program · Pre-LOI Diligence & Valuation Bridges
Originate off-market targets and stress-test seller claims pre-LOI.
Map fragmented sub-sectors to build bilateral acquisition shortlists, reconcile conflicting market-size reports, isolate buried high-margin subsidiaries, and underwrite the post-close EBITDA and valuation bridge before exclusivity.
The commercial challenge
Seller CIMs overstate addressable markets and mask unit-economic drag.
Deal and corporate development teams waste weeks evaluating auction targets whose headline market growth was driven by price inflation rather than volume, or where commercial databases misstate private-company revenue by multiples. Pre-LOI conviction requires source-tagged market models and outside-in unit economics.
- Four off-the-shelf industry reports quoting four contradictory market sizes with unstated scope boundaries.
- High-margin specialty divisions buried inside distressed parent companies with bloated corporate overhead.
- Commercial databases missing unlisted middle-market roll-up targets or misreporting statutory subsidiary accounts.
What your team receives
Four decision-ready deliverables in one program.
We screen fragmented sectors to originate bilateral roll-up and certified tuck-in targets outside banker auctions, pressure-test seller market claims, customer concentration and backlog durability before exclusivity, and reverse-engineer the margin and unit-economics bridge behind an implied valuation.
- 01
Bilateral target ranking & shortlist
A multi-factor screen across fragmented industrial, healthcare, defence or services sub-sectors, cross-referencing certifications, capacity and ownership signals.
- 02
Sourced vs. inferred addressable market model
Bottom-up market sizing reconciling seller claims against agreed geographic and product boundaries, with every cell tagged to its source or formula.
- 03
Standalone carve-out & unit-economics diagnostic
Outside-in reconstruction of facility headcount, store cohort payback, RevPAR cross-subsidies or subsidiary EBITDA margins.
- 04
Pre-LOI valuation & EBITDA bridge
A quantified post-close value creation plan sizing working-capital release, pricing/mix lift and SG&A synergies for investment committee review.
Illustrative output
How the executive brief and reconciled databook are structured.
Every cell in the accompanying spreadsheet model is formula-driven and tagged either empirically sourced (with document and page citation) or model-inferred (with stated benchmark assumptions).
| Diligence workstream | Seller CIM claim | Reconciled read | Bridge impactUS$M | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoped addressable market (in-geography) | $6,200M | $4,720M | -$1,480M | high |
| Buried medical-device subsidiary standalone EBITDA | Consolidated | 28% margin | +$18M | high |
| Boutique cohort expansion & DC automation | 16% EBITDA | 20% EBITDA | +$150M | high |
| Post-close DIO & payables normalization | 145d DIO | 110d DIO | +$45M | medium |
Capabilities & starting scopes
Start with one deliverable or run the full outcome loop.
Each outcome program draws on specific steps of the research loop and can be commissioned as a focused starting deliverable or a recurring program.
Map
How does this market work, and where are the gaps?
Expose sub-tier supplier chokepoints, sourcing markups and domestic capability gaps.
You getValue-chain map
Find
Which ones should we go after first?
Originate off-market roll-up targets, win-ready defence programs and qualified borrowers.
You getScorecard and shortlist
Diagnose
Where is the value, or the risk?
Quantify trapped working capital, SKU and supplier markups, SG&A bloat and asset-level cost exposure.
You getDiagnostic and peer benchmark
Plan
What should we do, and what is it worth?
Build quantified EBITDA, cash-release, channel-mix and capex-phasing roadmaps.
You getValue creation plan
Starting research deliverables
Scorecard and shortlist
Originate off-market roll-up targets, match plant capabilities to funded defence and industrial tenders, or qualify mid-market borrowers.
Company diagnostic
Stress-test seller growth claims, customer concentration, backlog quality and unit economics before committing exclusivity or advisory fees.
How to start
One question, a fixed fee, a first read in days.
- Your question
- One live question, with the decision it serves.
- What comes back
- A reviewed answer with a point of view (a ranked shortlist, a diagnostic or a plan), with every source and anything unverified flagged.
- The fee
- The fee is fixed and agreed before work starts.
- The timing
- A first read in days, not weeks, then the reviewed brief on the date we agree.
We can provide regular research updates after the first project.
Industries & buyer teams
Target sectors and teams that commission this outcome.
Choose your industry to see sector-specific research questions and sample workbooks, or select your team to see how we scope the first engagement.
Industries served
- Advisory & professional services
Equip consulting, deal-advisory and transformation partners with pre-pitch financial hooks, off-market target screens and peer benchmarks.
- Financial services
Originate qualified mid-market borrowers, check bankability for better loan pricing, and benchmark operating cost across banking, insurance and credit.
- Technology & telecoms
Benchmark legacy-version support and R&D maintenance drag, offload low-margin implementation services to partners, and model implied equity valuation bridges.
- Retail & consumer
Isolate negative-margin SKUs, unbundle trading-house and freight markups, release cash trapped in seasonal inventory, and model direct-to-consumer channel shifts.
- Healthcare & life sciences
Benchmark acute-care cost per weighted case, consolidate clinical and surgical SKU spend, and map domestic biomanufacturing and sterile-fill capacity.
Anonymized proof
What our analysts have uncovered across delivered engagements.
140 → 12
~140 organizations ranked into a 12-target priority shortlist.
Pre-LOI bridge
Implied equity valuation bridges and standalone carve-out reconstructions separating volume growth from channel mix and margin expansion before exclusivity.
Pilot → annual
An institutional investor expanded from a pilot to an annual engagement.
From the 15Rock Review
Field notes & whitepapers on pre-loi diligence & valuation bridges.
Analyst-checked teardowns, benchmarks, and decision frameworks drawn from delivered engagements.
Why General-Purpose AI Fails on Defence Supply Chains: The 20% Coverage Trap
Off-the-shelf AI assistants capture less than 20% of private sub-tier defence supply chains—and half of that 20% is wrong. Deterministic engineering graphs bridge the gap.
Underwriting the Sovereign Pivot: How Banks, Institutional Allocators, and Private Equity Price Sub-Tier Defence Risk
Banks and private-equity funds deploying capital into defence supply chains face 35.4% capital-lapse deferrals, availability fee clawbacks, and 4.4x registry revenue gaps.
The NAICS Blind Spot: Why Industrial Classification Codes Miss 90% of Sovereign Defence Supply Chains
Standard NAICS codes miss 88% of verified defence-capable sub-tier plants. A 4-tier component capability graph surfaces hidden sovereign capacity across precision manufacturing.
Start with one question
Which target universe or live acquisition thesis should we pressure-test before exclusivity?
Tell us what you’re investigating and when you need an answer. We’ll discuss the scope, inputs and research that would help.